How to beat PAR: 7 tips for picking your UnderPar XI
In UnderPar the lowest score wins, and you get there by picking players who beat their PAR. Here are seven things we've learned about doing that well.
1. Pick players, not reputations
The best players carry the toughest PARs. A star forward might have a PAR of 8.0 or more, which means he needs one of his best games of the season just to break even. Only about 1 in 10 ratings this season has been 8.0 or higher. A big name is only a good pick if you think he'll have an even bigger day than we expect.
2. Starters first, always
Players who start average a FotMob rating of about 7.0. Substitutes average 6.4, and a third of them get no rating at all, which scores +0.3. If there's real doubt about whether a player will start, he's usually not worth it, however low his PAR looks.
3. Read the team news
Check the latest injury news and manager press conferences before the deadline. Players coming back from injury often get fewer minutes. Teams playing in Europe in midweek often rotate at the weekend. You can change your XI as often as you like until the deadline, 90 minutes before the first kick-off, so make your final changes late.
4. Think about how the match will go
Ratings follow the game. Defenders and keepers on a side that keeps a clean sheet tend to rate well. Attackers on a side that wins comfortably tend to rate well. A team that's likely to spend the afternoon defending can still give its keeper a big rating if he's kept busy, but its forwards will struggle. Pick players whose match is likely to go their way.
5. Treat goalkeepers as a gamble
Keepers have the widest range of any position. This season 15% of keeper ratings were 8.0 or more, but 17% were under 6. You have to pick exactly one, so think about which keeper is likely to be busy without being overrun. A keeper who faces lots of shots and saves them is the dream.
6. Look for value in the middle
The steadiest position is midfield. Midfielders were the least likely to have a really bad rating this season, with only 6% under 6.0. A reliable midfielder in a decent fixture with a modest PAR can quietly go under par most weeks. These players rarely win you a Gameweek on their own, but they stop you losing one.
7. Don't chase last week
A typical player's rating moves by about 0.6 either way from week to week. One huge game is often followed by an ordinary one, and our PARs already take recent form into account. Look at the fixture in front of him, not the highlights from last Saturday.
One last thing: the rules help you spread risk
Your XI must come from at least six clubs, and you can have at most three from one club and two from every other. That stops one bad team performance from ruining your week. Use it: spread your picks across matches you think will go well.
New to the game? Start with how UnderPar works, then pick your XI.