How to pick a goalkeeper in UnderPar: what the ratings tell us
Every UnderPar XI needs exactly one goalkeeper, and no position swings more. Pick the right one and he can win you the Gameweek on his own. Pick the wrong one and you can be three points over par before your outfield players have done anything. Here's what the first eight Gameweeks of 2026–27 tell us about picking well.
Keepers are the most unpredictable position
There have been 159 goalkeeper ratings in the Premier League so far this season. They average 6.89, almost exactly the same as outfield players. But the spread is far wider:
| Keeper rating | How often |
|---|---|
| 8.0 or more | 23 (14%) |
| 7.0 to 7.9 | 59 (37%) |
| 6.0 to 6.9 | 50 (31%) |
| 5.0 to 5.9 | 17 (11%) |
| Under 5.0 | 10 (6%) |
One keeper rating in six has been under 6.0, and one in sixteen has been under 5.0. For outfield players it's fewer than one in a hundred. A keeper also can't hide: if he concedes, it's on his record, and a single mistake that leads to a goal costs him heavily.
Goals conceded matter most
For Gameweeks 7 and 8 we matched every starting keeper's rating to the score in his match. That's 39 keeper performances:
| Goals conceded | Games | Average rating |
|---|---|---|
| 0 (clean sheet) | 14 | 7.67 |
| 1 | 13 | 6.81 |
| 2 | 8 | 6.21 |
| 3 or more | 4 | 5.08 |
Every extra goal conceded knocks roughly 0.6 to 1.1 off a keeper's average rating. These are small samples, but the pattern is clear: a clean sheet is the single best predictor of a good keeper score. The result matters too, but less: keepers on the winning side averaged 7.46, in a draw 7.30, and on the losing side 5.87.
The busy underdog can beat the quiet favourite
You might think the best keeper to pick is the one on the side most likely to win. It isn't that simple. FotMob rewards saves, and a keeper on a dominant side often has very little to do. In Gameweek 7, Manchester City and Tottenham both won at home, but Gianluigi Donnarumma rated 6.5 and Antonín Kinský 6.3. Both conceded, and their side's win wasn't enough to lift them.
Compare that with Gameweek 8. Aston Villa's Zion Suzuki rated 8.6 in a 2–1 win over Manchester City. Kinský kept a clean sheet as Spurs won 2–0 at Chelsea and rated 8.0. Both were on the side the bookmakers expected to lose, and both finished well under par: Suzuki by 1.9 and Kinský by 1.6.
The ideal keeper is on a side that will face a lot of shots but probably won't concede many. That's often a decent team playing away at a strong one, or a well-organised side that likes to defend.
The most reliable keepers so far
These are the keepers with at least five ratings this season, sorted by average:
| Keeper | Average | Lowest | Highest |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Raya (Arsenal) | 7.47 | 6.1 | 8.9 |
| James Trafford (Leeds) | 7.46 | 6.8 | 8.5 |
| Zion Suzuki (Aston Villa) | 7.39 | 6.1 | 8.6 |
| Emiliano Martínez (Chelsea) | 7.35 | 6.3 | 8.2 |
| Konstantinos Tzolakis (Hull) | 7.34 | 5.8 | 8.4 |
James Trafford stands out. He's the only regular keeper who hasn't had a rating below 6.8 all season. Leeds aren't one of the strongest sides, but he's been steady all season. David Raya has the best average, but as Arsenal's keeper he also tends to carry one of the toughest PARs, so he needs a big game to go well under.
At the other end, Bournemouth's Djordje Petrovic (6.29) and Coventry's Carl Rushworth (6.11) have the lowest averages of any regular keeper. Both have had a rating under 4.0. Their PARs are usually low to match, but a low PAR doesn't protect you from a 3.7.
Five rules for picking your keeper
- Think about clean sheets first. Goals conceded drive keeper ratings more than anything else. If you think a side will keep a clean sheet, their keeper is worth a look.
- Busy beats bored. A keeper who makes saves gets rewarded. Look for keepers likely to face shots in a game they can still win or draw.
- Be wary of heavy underdogs. Being busy only helps if he keeps most of them out. A keeper facing a side likely to score three or four will usually rate badly, however many saves he makes.
- Check the PAR, not just the player. A great keeper with a 7.8 PAR needs an excellent day. A solid keeper with a 6.7 PAR in the right fixture can be the better pick.
- Use your bench keeper. From Gameweek 9 your bench includes a goalkeeper, who comes in if your keeper doesn't start. Keepers rarely get dropped, but injuries and illness happen, so pick a bench keeper who is certain to start.
Keepers are a gamble every week, but they don't have to be a blind one. For more on the riskiest and steadiest picks, read the most consistent players of 2026–27, then pick your XI.